- The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that Russian oil exports rose by 165,000 barrels per day in October to 7.7 million bpd.
- Russian exports to Europe hit 1.5 million bpd, but 1.1 million barrels a day of that is set to be halted in December with new sanctions.
- The IEA said it remains unclear how Moscow will redistribute those barrels to other global buyers.
Russian oil exports climbed by 165,000 barrels per day to 7.7 million bpd for the month of October, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
Of that, 1.5 million barrels a day went to the EU, but come December 5 roughly 1.1 million barrels a day will be halted, the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report.
That's when EU nations will ban seaborne imports of Russian crude, and EU companies will be barred from insuring Russian oil shipments or providing other related services.
But where all those banned barrels will end up is uncertain. China, India and Turkey have emerged as big buyers of discounted Russian crude that Western customers shunned. However, purchases from those three countries have stabilized in recent months, and the volume oil that will be banned it too great for them to absorb.
It remains to be seen if Moscow can land any new customers to take in the seaborne barrels Europe is set to ban, the IEA said.
Meanwhile, a Group of Seven price cap is also supposed to kick in on December 5, though the price level hasn't been revealed yet. The idea is to target Russia's revenue from energy exports, while keeping oil flowing across global markets.
To Energy Aspects analyst Livia Gallarati, the upcoming EU sanctions threaten to push Brent crude prices up to $120 a barrel because they will cause an abrupt and sharp supply strain.
"We just don't have enough demand and shipping capacity to move all of these barrels to other non-European markets," she told Insider on Monday. "Brent is going to be structurally higher and it will feed into pump prices for the consumers. There's no doubt about that."
