- Hurricane Ian is expected to barrel into Tampa Bay as a Category 3 storm on Wednesday.
- That would make Ian the first major hurricane to directly hit Tampa Bay in 100 years.
- The last Category 3 Tampa hurricane, in 1921, did major damage and brought 11 feet of water.
Hurricane Ian is churning past Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, where it's forecast to whip itself into a frenzy of 111 mph winds.
That would make Ian a Category 3 hurricane — qualifying it as a major storm — by the time it reaches the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday. If it directly strikes Tampa Bay, as forecasters expect, it will be the first major storm to do so in 100 years.
"We tell people even if they're lifelong Floridians like myself, this is something that we haven't seen in our lifetime," Rick Davis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Tampa office, told CNN. "So we definitely need to take it seriously."
The National Hurricane Center urged Floridians to finish preparations Tuesday morning. People in the Tampa area should have all preparations complete by Tuesday evening.
The last Category 3 storm to strike Tampa did major damage
The last major hurricane to directly strike the Tampa Bay region, in 1921, predates the current storm naming system. It was simply called "the 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane." It also predates modern emergency plans, so the storm wiped out power across the county, smashed ships against the docks, washed out roads and train tracks, and killed eight people.
NWS estimates that storm was a Category 3, and that it pushed 11 feet of storm-surge water into downtown Tampa.
Ian's impacts could be devastating, too. Category 3 wind speeds can snap and uproot trees, tear apart roofs, and wipe out power and water access for days or weeks.
That doesn't even account for the storm surge — the wall of water a hurricane pushes from the ocean onto land — which is often more damaging and deadly than the wind. Hurricane Ian is forecast to push 5 to 10 feet of water into Tampa Bay.
That doesn't include rainfall, which is expected to cause flash flooding across Florida as Ian arrives.
Hurricanes are growing stronger and faster as ocean temperatures rise. Warm water feeds more moisture into a hurricane and helps its winds rage stronger. That's why hurricanes like Ian can strengthen so quickly over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. As climate change raises ocean temperatures, scientists expect to see more of this rapid intensification, alongside a trend of stronger, wetter hurricanes that cause more damage.
