- ChatGPT is slechts een paar maanden oud en heeft nu al veel invloed op de zakenwereld.
- Experts zeggen dat de chatbot en andere vormen van artificial intelligence bepaalde banen in gevaar kunnen brengen.
- Insider stelde een lijst samen van beroepen die zich in de gevarenzone bevinden.
- Lees ook: Dit zijn 23 opvallende weetjes over topman Sam Altman van het OpenAI, het bedrijf achter ChatGPT – hij leerde programmeren toen hij 8 was en heeft een lading goud, wapens en gasmaskers voor als de wereld vergaat
De bot ChatGPT en andere vormen van generatieve artificial intelligence (AI) zouden in de toekomst misschien jouw baan kunnen overnemen.
De technologie begint zich al in zekere zin te bewijzen. Zo kwam Google erachter dat ChatGPT in theorie aangenomen zou kunnen worden als junior programmeur bij het bedrijf, gebaseerd op de antwoorden die het gaf op sollicitatievragen. Bij Amazon bleek dat de chatbot onder meer heel goed is in het beantwoorden van vragen van klanten en het maken van opleidingsdocumenten.
Maar de AI-chatbot heeft ook enkele zwakheden. Zo bleek dat hij met enige regelmaat foute informatie deelt, vragen van programmeurs verkeerd beantwoordt en simpele wiskundige sommen niet goed kan uitrekenen.
Belangrijkste manco is dat ChatGPT weliswaar goed is in het genereren van “verhalen”, maar feit en fictie niet kan scheiden. De chatbot verzint verhalen, op het moment dat feitelijke bronnen geen of onvoldoende uitkomst bieden. Het softwareprogamma heeft ook geen mechanisme om de geloofwaardigheid van bronnen af te wegen.
Ondanks deze tekortkomingen wordt er volop gespeculeerd over banen die ChatGPT in de toekomst kan overnemen. Vooral werknemers met administratieve taken zouden zich in de gevarenzone bevinden.
Experts zien op kunstmatige intelligentie gebaseerde software echter niet als een complete vervanging van menselijke arbeid. Mark Muro van onderzoeksbureau Brookings Institute onderzocht de impact van artificial intelligence op de Amerikaanse beroepsbevolking en zegt tegen Insider niet te verwachten dat kunstmatige intelligentie op korte termijn miljoenen mensen werkloos zal maken.
Anu Madgavkar, een partner bij adviesbureau McKinsey, is hiermee eens. Beide experts zien kunstmatige intelligentie niet als een dreiging voor de werkgelegenheid, maar juist als een tool die de productiviteit kan verhogen. Wel kan het bepaalde beroepen fundamenteel veranderen.
Toch is het niet ondenkbaar dat er op den duur banen verloren gaan door de inzet van artificial intelligence. Met hulp van Muro en Madgavkar, en op basis van eigen onderzoek, stelde Insider een lijst samen van beroepen die het hoogste risico lopen om te worden overgenomen door AI. Deze vind je in de slideshow hieronder.
Dit zijn 10 banen die AI in de toekomst mogelijk kan overnemen
Dit zijn 10 banen die AI in de toekomst mogelijk kan overnemen
Tech jobs (Coders, computer programmers, software engineers, data analysts)
Coding and computer programming are in-demand skills, but it's possible that ChatGPT and similar AI tools may fill in some of the gaps in the near future.
Tech jobs such as software developers, web developers, computer programmers, coders, and data scientists are "pretty amenable" to AI technologies "displacing more of their work," Madgavkar said.
That's because AI like ChatGPT is good at crunching numbers with relative accuracy.
In fact, advanced technologies like ChatGPT could produce code faster than humans, which means that work can be completed with fewer employees, Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute who has researched AI's impact on the American workforce, told Insider.
"What took a team of software developers might only take some of them," he added.
Tech companies like ChatGPT maker's OpenAI are already considering replacing software engineers with AI.
Still, Oded Netzer, a Columbia Business School professor, thinks that AI will help coders rather than replace them.
"In terms of jobs, I think it's primarily an enhancer than full replacement of jobs," Netzer told CBS MoneyWatch. "Coding and programming is a good example of that. It actually can write code quite well."
Jens Schlueter/Getty Images
Media jobs (advertising, content creation, technical writing, journalism)
Media jobs across the board — including those in advertising, technical writing, journalism, and any role that involves content creation — may be affected by ChatGPT and similar forms of AI, Madgavkar said. That's because AI is able to read, write, and understand text-based data well, she added.
"Analyzing and interpreting vast amounts of language based data and information is a skill that you'd expect generative AI technologies to ramp up on," Madgavkar said.
Economist Paul Krugman said in a New York Times op-ed that ChatGPT may be able to do tasks like reporting and writing "more efficiently than humans."
The media industry is already beginning to experiment with AI-generated content. Tech news site CNET used an AI tool similar to ChatGPT to write dozens of articles — though the publisher has had to issue a number of corrections — and BuzzFeed has used tech from the ChatGPT maker to generate new forms of content like quizzes and travel guides.
But Madgavkar said that the majority of work done by content creators is not automatable.
"There's a ton of human judgment that goes into each of these occupations," she said.
Legal industry jobs (paralegals, legal assistants)
Generative AI may most likely affect legal workers in the US, a recent Goldman Sachs report found.
That's because the number of jobs in legal services is relatively small and have already been highly exposed to AI automation before the advent of new AI tools, Manav Raj, an author of the Goldman study, told Insider.
Like media roles, jobs in the legal industry such as paralegals and legal assistants are responsible for consuming large amounts of information, synthesizing what they learned, then making it digestible through a legal brief or opinion.
Language-oriented roles like these are susceptible to automation, Madgavkar said.
"The data is actually quite structured, very language-oriented, and therefore quite amenable to generative AI," she added.
But again, AI won't fully be able to automate these jobs since it requires a degree of human judgement to understand what a client or employer wants.
"It's almost like a bit of a productivity boost that some of these occupations might get, because you can use tools that actually do this better," Madgavkar said.
Market research analysts
AI is good at analyzing data and predicting outcomes, Muro said. That is why market research analysts may be susceptible to AI-driven change.
Market research analysts are responsible for collecting data, identifying trends within that data, and then using what they found to design an effective marketing campaign or decide where to place advertising.
"Those are things that we're now seeing that AI could handle," Muro said.
Laurence Dutton/Getty Images
Teachers across the country are worried about students using ChatGPT to cheat on their homework, but according to Pengcheng Shi, an associate dean in the department of computing and information sciences at Rochester Institute of Technology, they should also be thinking about their job security.
ChatGPT "can easily teach classes already," Shi told the New York Post.
"Although it has bugs and inaccuracies in terms of knowledge, this can be easily improved," he said. "Basically, you just need to train the ChatGPT."
But Shannon Ahern, a high school math and science teacher who uses ChatGPT to do things like lesson planning, told Insider she's not worried she'll be replaced by the tech.
"There will always be a need for us and the human connection that comes with in-person instruction," she said.
Finance jobs (Financial analysts, personal financial advisors)
Like market research analysts, financial analysts, personal financial advisors, and other jobs in personal finance that require manipulating significant amounts of numerical data can be affected by AI, Muro, the researcher at The Brookings Institute, said.
"AI can identify trends in the market, highlight what investments in a portfolio are doing better and worse, communicate all that, and then use various other forms of data by, say, a financial company to forecast a better investment mix," Muro said.
These analysts make a lot of money, he said, but parts of their jobs are automatable.
Experts say ChatGPT could upend jobs across a range of Wall Street industries, from trading to investment banking.
"It's going to automate select tasks that knowledge workers are engaged in today so that they can focus on higher-value tasks," Dylan Roberts, a partner at KPMG, told Insider.
Pengcheng Shi, a dean at the Rochester Institute of Technology's computer science department, agrees that certain Wall Street roles could be in jeopardy.
"At an investment bank, people are hired out of college, and spend two, three years to work like robots and do Excel modeling — you can get AI to do that," Shi told the New York Post.
AP Photo/Ted Shaffrey
"Upskilling millions of people in their ability to create and manipulate images will have a profound impact on the economy," they wrote, adding that "these recent advances in AI will surely usher in a period of hardship and economic pain for some whose jobs are directly impacted and who find it hard to adapt."
But Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey, an economist at Oxford University, told Insider that AI-tools like ChatGPT may actually help workers in "creative" industries like art and graphic design produce higher quality work. Frey said he is more concerned about how the tech will impact wages.
"In my view, it's less about automation," he said. "It's more about democratization and competition, potentially leading to lower wages for people in some of these professions."
courtesy of Nguyen
Accounting is generally viewed as a stable profession, but even employees in this industry could be at risk.
"Technology hasn't put everybody out of a job yet, but it does put some people out of a job," Brett Caraway, associate professor with the Institute of Communication, Culture, Information and Technology at the University of Toronto, said on Global News Radio 640 Toronto in January.
Caraway added that "intellectual labor" in particular could be threatened.
"This could be lawyers, accountants," he said. "It is something new, and it will be interesting to see just how disruptive and painful it is to employment and politics."
Customer service agents
You've probably already experienced calling or chatting with a company's customer service, and having a robot answer. ChatGPT and related technologies could continue this trend.
A 2022 study from the tech research company Gartner predicted that chatbots will be the main customer service channel for roughly 25% of companies by 2027.
Tom Werner/Getty Images