2016 has been a year of massive upheaval for politics in Europe and around the world.
Britain voted to leave the European Union, Donald Trump won a shock victory in the US Presidential election, populism has spread like wildfire in Europe, and in just under three weeks Italy goes to the polls to vote in a referendum on electoral reforms that is widely seen in a vote on Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s future.
Across Europe, parties like the Front National in France, Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland, and Five Star in Italy are rapidly gaining support, and Austria could be on the brink of electing a far-right president in Norbert Hofer. Put very simply, politics in Europe is changing massively.
That change is likely to keep coming, and in the next few years there are a whole host of major events and elections that could alter the landscape even more. France will hold a presidential election early in 2017, where FN leader Marine Le Pen is widely thought to have at least some chance of victory.
Germany also has an election next year, and in 2018 we’ll see a general election in Italy – although it should be noted we may get one much earlier if Renzi loses his referendum.
In a research note discussing the likely outcomes and impacts of the country’s upcoming referendum on constitutional reforms, Morgan Stanley staff members Daniele Antonucci and Phanikiran Naraparaju include a comprehensive chart of the upcoming risk events in Europe, stretching forward five years until 2021.
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Check it out below (we have highlighted some of the most crucial events):