- Real GDP rose 4.9% at an annualized rate in the third quarter.
- That greatly surpasses the roughly 2% seen in both the first and second quarter of this year.
- There are still concerns about a recession, but the next downturn might not be too long or severe.
The US economy saw much higher GDP growth in the third quarter than the first two quarters of the year.
Real gross domestic product, or real GDP, rose at an annualized rate of 4.9%, according to the advance estimate for the third quarter from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This increase is above the forecast of 4.3%.
The advance estimate suggests much stronger growth than the roughly 2% rates seen in the first and second quarters of the year.
While the advance estimate and the results for the first two quarters show strong GDP growth, some experts believe a recession is coming — even if they expect it will not be severe.
For example, The Conference Board is predicting a mild downturn next year.
"While the prospects for a 'soft landing' have risen, The Conference Board believes it is more probable that the US economy will slip into a short and shallow recession in early 2024," a brief said.
The brief noted that "as the economy cools in early 2024 so too will the labor market." The US labor market added 336,000 jobs in September after a revised gain of 227,000 in August.
Larry Adam of Raymond James also said in a recent note that "growth will be much slower over the next nine months and lead to a mild recession." One reason for this is the increasing headwinds that consumers are facing.
Although there may be some concerns of a mild recession, a recent post about the results of Bankrate's quarterly survey of economists noted that the chance of a recession based on the average forecast among respondents has declined from 65% from the third quarter of 2022 to 46% from the third quarter this year.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.