BlackBerrys have fallen foul of security conscious authorities in India and
the Middle East over super-secure encryption and offshore data centres, both
of which hobble surveillance efforts. So perturbed is the United Arab
Emirates that it plans to suspend BlackBerry services from October.
Following Beijing’s threatened closure of Google’s Chinese website, the move
suggests – to paraphrase Rupert Murdoch – that authoritarian governments
pose a threat to technology everywhere. Research in Motion, the Canada-based
company behind BlackBerry, avoided Indian suspension by ceding ground to the
authorities; a similar UAE deal may follow. Yet this could prove just as
disruptive for some users and would be an unfortunate advert for the
company: secure communications is one of the BlackBerry’s main selling
points to business customers in the face of creeping competition from other
smartphones.
So while any direct impact will be minor – worst-case, a removal of 1m-plus
users in the UAE and Saudi Arabia would take 2.5 per cent off next year’s
earnings, calculates Credit Suisse – investors have cause for concern. More
nervy governments lie in wait as emerging markets expand; the Asia-Pacific
will overtake North America and western Europe as the biggest smartphone
market in 2014, estimates consultancy Ovum.
Meantime, RIM’s first-mover advantage, which has produced compound revenue
growth of 70 per cent since 2004, is fading. Attracting new smartphone
customers from the ranks of teenage text junkies in a crowded market is
having an impact on numbers. The average selling price for devices, the
lion’s share of revenues, dropped $57 year-on-year to $300 in the last
quarter. Some of this is in RIM’s share price, down 17 per cent in the year
to date and about a third from its mid-2008 peak. The Gulf states have just
provided another reason to steer clear.
Dit artikel is oorspronkelijk verschenen op z24.nl