If 2016 was the year that populism entered the global political scene, 2017 will be the year that its impacts are fully felt.
With Britain’s exit process from the EU formally beginning and Donald Trump taking office in the US, populism will shape the global landscape over the coming years.
Events like these mean that populism’s influence will only grow going forward, according to a new briefing from research house Oxford Economics, which suggests that in the “next year or so,” at least one more populist government will take power in a major global economy.
“Get ready for more populist governments,” Oxford Economics’ Head of Global Macro Research Gabriel Sterne and Global Economist Melanie Rama write.
“There is now sufficiently widespread backing for global populism that at least one further victory in a major economy is very likely in the next year or so, our analysis of populist policies and support in 20 large economies shows.”
Oxford Economics’ analysis suggests that outside of the USA, the countries most likely to elect a populist government are in Latin America, with Brazil and Mexico both seen to have a more than 20% chance of having “a populist movement being in power in the next 2-3 years.”
In Mexico, Trump’s victory has increased chances of left-wing Andres Lopez Obrador taking power in 2018, given the president-elect’s anti-Mexico stance (Business Insider’s Christopher Woody wrote as much in September, when a Trump victory still looked unlikely).
Brazil’s widespread distrust of politicians following the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff for hiding the country’s declining economic situation during an election year in order to win reelection in 2014, means that the country could be susceptible to the election of a populist government. The PT or Workers’ Party, which governed for 12 years between 2003 and 2015, is a prime candidate to take power.
Other countries where populist governments are likely include France and the Netherlands – where far-right candidates Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders have a good chance of winning elections in 2017 – and South Korea.
Here is the chart:
Sterne and Rama note that while no single country other than the USA, has a probability of over 50% of seeing a populist government, when added together, the odds of a further populist government are high. Here’s the key extract (emphasis ours):
“While there are no populist electoral front-runners, many large economies have elections coming up in which populists have a decent chance of capturing sizeable votes. If you roll the dice enough times, the populist number is likely to come up somewhere – there is now around a 50% chance of a populist government in one key Eurozone country; bookmaker odds suggest an even higher probability.”